{"id":493,"date":"2026-07-01T15:13:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T15:13:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=493"},"modified":"2026-07-01T15:13:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T15:13:23","slug":"the-memo-of-understanding-that-no-one-understands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=493","title":{"rendered":"The Memo of Understanding That No One Understands"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Just two weeks after it was signed, the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States to wind down Donald Trump\u2019s feckless war is in such serious trouble that diplomats are now gathered in Qatar trying to contain the damage. This, like all the other follies associated with this purblind imperial errand, was an entirely foreseeable development: the agreement-in-process seeks to secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for near-total American capitulation on decades of policy red lines for the United States, from the empowerment of regional proxies for Iran to the continued development of ballistic missiles and ongoing nuclear-enrichment initiatives.<\/p>\n

Read more In Texas, Protesting ICE Can Get You a Life Sentence<\/a><\/p>\n

Still, underneath the daily violence, turmoil, and confusion in and around the Strait, the outline of a settlement remains legible. But it can only be realized if the Trump administration is willing to accept what amounts to a stinging strategic defeat: namely, by transforming the deliberately ambiguous memorandum from a mostly empty piece of Trumpian diplomatic theater into a real, binding document capable of delivering lasting calm.<\/p>\n

Given the significant stress that the months-long Hormuz closure placed on international commerce and growth\u2014as well as its role in engineering President Trump\u2019s acute humiliation at hands of bunkered theocrats he had quite recently threatened to eradicate\u2014the stakes are as high as they were when the memorandum won US approval two weeks ago. Yet even though representatives of Iran and the United States spent months putting the agreement together, no one seems to agree on exactly what\u2019s in it. The Americans clearly believe they agreed to lift punishing sanctions on Iran and authorized a release of frozen Iranian assets to the tune of $12 billion in exchange for Iranian forces\u2019 to open the Strait for 60 days. Meanwhile, the Iranians interpret the broad language of the memorandum as granting them the right to dictate shipping routes and attack ships that operate outside of them. To cite an Internet meme from a more innocent time, America sees a white-and-gold dress, and Iran sees a blue-and-black one.<\/p>\n

Together with the simmering Lebanon-Israeli conflict, which Iranian negotiators succeeded in formally linking to the memorandum, the precise shape of the Hormuz reopening is emerging as the biggest threat to the framework for an end to the Iran war. This, in turn, presents a major obstacle for Trump and his MAGA allies in the Republican Party, who well understand that they have little choice but to bring the Iran crisis to an end before the US midterm elections in November in order to continue holding power in Congress.<\/p>\n

Any fair reading of the actual terms in the memorandum confirms that they lend themselves to these harsh outcomes for American negotiators for one simple reason: the US team got played by their more motivated, clever, and emboldened counterparts. If the memorandum is to lead to a durable settlement, it will be on terms that Tehran could only have dreamed of when the American and Israeli bombing started in February. The only relevant question going forward is whether Trump can accept that his little misadventure failed.<\/p>\n

Last weekend\u2019s tit-for-tat violence, which the Trump administration seemingly timed to unfold while markets were closed for the weekend, was caused by Iranian attacks on commercial ships using a US-backed route on the Omani side of the Strait. Iran is insisting that commercial ships wanting to pass through the Strait obtain a permit and then use a route taking them through Iranian territorial waters. This is obviously a violation of international maritime law\u2014yet it also appears to be fully consistent with the document that a cornered President Trump signed in Versailles. Iran\u2019s actions in the Strait are an unmistakable signal that the country intends not just to impose a tolling system on the waterway but also to ensure that ships steer as close to Iran\u2019s shores as possible, in order to secure maximum ongoing leverage. Indeed, exactly such a plan, which Iran created with Oman, was leaked to reporters on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The United States can act surprised and outraged over this post-memorandum maneuvering, but it\u2019s all right there in the document. Point 5 states that \u201cthe Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days.\u201d It does not say that Iran must allow ships to take whatever route they pleas\u2014and in fact very clearly gives Iran the right to determine what constitutes \u201csafe passage.\u201d Point 5 also doesn\u2019t specify just what constitutes a \u201cbest effort\u201d\u2014a loophole roughly equivalent to an anguished parent\u2019s discovery that there\u2019s no effective way to define what \u201ctwo more bites\u201d means to a toddler. Meanwhile, the extremely open-ended regime that would almost certainly fall under Iran\u2019s authority after 60-day expiration date on passage without charge would be a source of unmistakable economic pain to ships operating in the region.<\/p>\n

The memorandum also called for the \u201cimmediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.\u201d That sounds eminently reasonable\u2013were it not for the inconvenient consideration that the actual combatants are not party to the understanding. Under great duress from Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed last week to a flimsy \u201cframework agreement\u201d that the Lebanese government threw together chiefly to give Trump the space to open the Strait of Hormuz, bring down gas prices, and stop inflation from getting any worse. Because the framework conditions an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon on the successful disarmament of Hezbollah by the shell government in Beirut\u2014a gargantuan task it clearly lacks the capacity to carry out\u2014it will lead to nothing but future conflict.<\/p>\n

This is why the \u201ctrilateral framework\u201d for an agreement to end the invasion in Lebanon is likely to take its place in the pantheon of Trump\u2019s fake diplomatic achievements, alongside milestones such as the 2018 document that committed North Korea to the \u201ccomplete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula\u201d but failed to provide even the outline of a process to achieve such a lofty goal.<\/p>\n

Like most of the \u201cdeals\u201d and \u201cframeworks\u201d and \u201cbreakthroughs\u201d that President Trump has bragged about over the years, the Iran memorandum is heavy on vapors and vibes and very light on the kind of precise terms that can keep the peace. These are documents whose fundamental purpose is stage management and narrative-building rather than conflict resolution. They are the diplomatic equivalent of shoving clutter under the bed instead of cleaning the room.<\/p>\n

Read more Steven Spielberg\u2019s Aliens<\/a><\/p>\n

Consider, for example, that virtually nothing of substance has happened since the \u201cdeal\u201d to end Israel\u2019s genocide in Gaza while more than a million Palestinians remain displaced, immiserated, and without any sense of when their suffering might end. I would encourage you to return to the text of the \u201cagreement\u201d and marvel at all the things that are supposed to be, but very much are not, happening. That would include, just for starters, the establishment of a \u201ctemporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee,\u201d as well as a \u201cTrump economic development plan\u201d that involves \u201cconvening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East.\u201d Other feel-good and distinctly content-challenged word formations here are the creation of a \u201cspecial economic zone\u201d with \u201cpreferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries\u201d and the founding of an \u201cinterfaith dialogue process\u201d that will \u201ctry and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis.\u201d<\/p>\n

Similar to the Trumpian showcase of gobbledygook that solved nothing in Gaza, the Iran memorandum also promises that an \u201cexecutive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU.\u201d If any such mechanism has been established or even conceptualized, it has escaped everyone\u2019s notice; yet the larger quandary here for Trump\u2019s bumbling team of negotiators is that there\u2019s never going to be a final deal at all if the fragile peace falls apart.<\/p>\n

And it is pretty clearly already at risk, in large part because Trump keeps sending the few remaining brainless loyalists in his ever-narrower orbit to conduct negotiations that under any sane president would be entrusted to diplomatic professionals capable of creating an actionable document.<\/p>\n

Yet, even in spite of such feckless buffoonery, the memorandum could still lead to a more durable arrangement. Iran understandably now seems to care more about institutionalizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz than racing toward a nuclear weapon\u2014especially since the former instrument of global clout now serves the strategic purpose of the latter at significantly lower cost. An arrangement that traded some nuclear enrichment capacity for a Hormuz tolling regime as well as recognized Iranian control over the waterway would allow Iran to get what it has always wanted\u2014regime security, robust deterrence, and an end to the country\u2019s international economic isolation\u2014 on terms that were not available before the war.<\/p>\n

But to get there, Trump\u2019s overmatched negotiators are going to need to formally agree to the very, very painful concessions that they have so far refused to acknowledge. That, in turn, will require the president himself to sign a document that will be broadly and correctly viewed as a catastrophe for the United States. And unlike the Gaza \u201cagreement,\u201d it will actually need to be put into practice.<\/p>\n

For its part, Iran may have to decide whether it\u2019s willing to abandon the massive strategic breakthrough it appears on the verge of achieving for the sake of registering its disapproval with Israeli actions in Lebanon\u2014or maintaining a greatly diminished nuclear program that now feels unnecessary. There is some risk for Tehran that keeping the conflict on simmer will allow the United States to demonstrate its capacity to restore shipping in Hormuz to some workable fraction of prewar levels without giving in to Iranian demands. Still, every vaguely worded provision in the memorandum of understanding clearly gives Iran the upper hand\u2014and a strong incentive simply to wait out Trump and his lackeys at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

In his videotaped speech on February 28, a baseball cap\u2013wearing President Trump told the Iranians, \u201cFor many years, you have asked for America\u2019s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight.\u201d<\/p>\n

He was right about one thing: No American president has ever delivered such a glorious bounty of help to Iran\u2019s autocrats. Tehran\u2019s representatives in Qatar can only marvel in gratitude\u2014and suppress fits of howling laughter.<\/p>\n

Read more Steven Spielberg\u2019s Aliens<\/a><\/p>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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