{"id":110,"date":"2026-05-28T15:09:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T15:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=110"},"modified":"2026-05-28T15:09:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T15:09:31","slug":"trumps-texas-senate-primary-win-is-going-to-backfire-spectacularly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=110","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Ken Paxton\u2019s resounding win over long-serving Senator John Cornyn in the Senate Republican primary runoff in Texas is yet more evidence of Donald Trump\u2019s personal stranglehold on the party. That this elevates the unpopular and toxically corrupt Paxton into a contest with the charismatic and cherubic Democratic nominee, James Talarico, suggests that the stranglehold has become a death grip.<\/p>\n

Read more Democrats Can\u2019t Avoid a Reckoning With Gaza<\/a><\/p>\n

I am less optimistic about Talarico\u2019s chances in the fall than others, but I can assure you this: Paxton\u2019s victory will blow a Texas-sized hole through Republican plans. It tears apart their Senate map, and it creates yet another disgruntled incumbent Republican with time in office on his hands and resentment to burn.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s most significant boost to Paxton\u2019s campaign was his long stretch of quiet after the primary failed to push Cornyn into a clear victory\u2014a silence that echoed his refusal to endorse incumbent senator Bill Cassidy\u2019s ultimately doomed campaign for renomination in Louisiana. His blessing withheld, Paxton and Cornyn both competed to make the only case that matters to Republican primary voters these days: I\u2019m the one most like Trump. And on that front, Paxton had the showiest, if not the most quantifiable, case.<\/p>\n

Cornyn\u2019s voting record actually set him above fellow Texas Senator Ted Cruz in terms of supporting Trump\u2019s policy agenda (99 versus 95 percent). But, unlike Paxton, Cornyn has been trapped by the slow and maddeningly collegial machinery of the Senate for decades. The structure of the institution makes it difficult to successfully avoid the taint of a bipartisan action. What\u2019s more, Cornyn committed the offense of engaging in a little institutionalism, voicing tepid criticism of Trump as, you know, maybe bad for the party. (\u201cTime has passed him by,\u201d he whispered back in 2023.)<\/p>\n

Paxton, on the other hand, has been dedicated to using his capacity as state attorney general to offer slavishly Trumpian stunts and empty PR grabs as long as he\u2019s been in office. (Too late, Cornyn tried his hand at such embarrassing ploys, only to give off the flop sweat of a perpetual tryhard.)<\/p>\n

Flip back through the press releases on the AG\u2019s website and you\u2019d be pardoned for thinking Paxton a Trump cabinet member or otherwise a direct flunky: He\u2019s mentioned at least once every 10 releases or so, and not just in the context of well-known Trump pet projects. For every \u201cAttorney General Paxton and America First Legal Join President Trump to Defeat California\u2019s Attempt at Forcing Radical \u200b\u2019Green Energy\u2019 Car Standards on America\u201d there\u2019s one touting a Trump agenda item you, and maybe Trump himself, didn\u2019t know about: \u201cAttorney General Ken Paxton and Trump DOJ Secure Historic Antitrust Settlement with Agricultural Data Broker to Lower the Prices of Meat Products.\u201d Also no doubt attractive to Trump was Paxton\u2019s singular obsession with suing Beto O\u2019Rourke over O\u2019Rourke\u2019s Democratic fundraising operation, a campaign that allowed Paxton to call O\u2019Rourke a \u201closer\u201d in official state documents\u2014and peevishly refer to him as \u201cRobert Francis O\u2019Rourke.\u201d (O\u2019Rourke ultimately succeeded in getting Ken Paxton\u2019s suit dismissed.) Even Paxton\u2019s historic and breathtaking level of corruption probably put him on Trump\u2019s good side.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s explicit if tardy endorsement of Paxton on May 19, a day after early voting started, was no surprise, but it undoubtedly pushed Cornyn\u2019s loss into straight-up embarrassment territory. It also gave Paxton coattails: Two other statewide runoffs pitting a kind-of-Trumpy candidate against a more florid character both wound up tipping toward the more MAGA candidate. The race to fill Paxton\u2019s seat saw Representative Chip Roy, who endorsed Ron DeSantis in 2024, go down to a state senator with no courtroom experience and lots of money who branded himself as \u201cMAGA Mayes\u201d Middleton.<\/p>\n

In the more obscure race for Texas railroad commissioner, a Trump acolyte candidate so objectionable he was decried by the Texas lieutenant governor succeeded over the incumbent. Last June, Bo French posted a poll to X, asking, \u201cWho is a bigger threat to America?\u201d With two options: \u201cJews\u201d or \u201cMuslims.\u201d In response, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick called for French\u2019s resignation as the Tarrant County GOP chair. Now French is the Republican commission chair nominee. The railroad commissioner seat is a quietly powerful sinecure that, confusingly, oversees the gas and oil industries; its primary relationship to traditional GOP interests has been in not actually overseeing those industries that much. But French has said he\u2019ll use the power of the office to \u201cdefend Texas, stop the Islamic invasion, and defeat the left,\u201d presumably using scraps of metal from the 10,000 abandoned oil wells in the state.<\/p>\n

All of this is worth rehearsing because, obviously, the exact same record that helped Paxton grind Cornyn\u2019s career to fine dust and propelled the most MAGA candidate onto November ballots will be a powerful weapon in the fall.<\/p>\n

Read more Democrats Can\u2019t Avoid a Reckoning With Gaza<\/a><\/p>\n

Before getting further into the good news, we might as well address two sunny assumptions that out-of-state Democrats seem to be making about why Paxton is such a delicious opponent: first, that his weak fundraising haul against Cornyn means he\u2019ll have trouble putting up cash against Talarico, a darling who pulled in the biggest fundraising haul of the campaign off Paxton proclaiming victory. Second, that there will be some slice of Republican voters so disgusted with Paxton that they\u2019ll sidle over to Talarico.<\/p>\n

Both of these happy forecasts are untrue, but they are untrue in ways that offer their own kind of hope.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Paxton will raise money just fine\u2014and it will come at the cost of every other seat the Republicans are trying to either flip or protect. According to Time<\/em>, Republicans on the Hill are whispering about shelling out an estimated $250 million just to hold the seat. Figuring that Democrats are prepared to put up that kind of cash\u2014and Talarico does seem set to draw in such sums\u2014that sets the Senate race up to become the most expensive in American history. This draws out of the Democrats\u2019 coffers as much as Republicans\u2019, but, crucially, Republicans were not planning on having to defend the seat. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \n
    1. Republican voters gonna Republican. The thought of peeling off former Cornyn voters engages in the sort of wishcasting that put Kamala Harris on stage with Lynn Cheney. Polls prior to the election showed that 90 percent of Cornyn voters would vote for Paxton if he got the nomination. Two percent said they would vote for Talarico. (And the margin of error for the poll was almost 3 percent.) But what hopeful progressives need to remember is there just aren\u2019t that many dedicated Republicans left.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Demographics are trending strongly in Democrats\u2019 favor in this regard. A New York Times<\/em> analysis has suggested that national-level gains among both Latino voters, a full 25 percent of the Texas voter cohort, and white voters have put Texas in play for similar reasons that (expensive, and ultimately purple) George now is.<\/p>\n

      The question isn\u2019t whether Talarico wins but what it costs Republicans that he can credibly compete.<\/p>\n

      There are numbers and there are vibes, and the national repercussions of Paxton\u2019s win might be felt along the taut strings of grievance more than the solid ground of polls and fundraising totals. Imagine with me a scenario in which Cornyn goes the route of other politicians recently toppled by a Trump-endorsed opponent: In the wake of his defeat, Thomas Massie promised to read the names of the Epstein victims into the Congressional Record<\/em> and teased being able to prove that Melania knew. Following his, Cassidy poked at Trump in his concession speech, noting that he was in fact conceding rather than \u201cclaim[ing] the election was stolen.\u201d Later, Cassidy laughed off a reporter\u2019s question: \u201cDo you think Trump has been honest with you?\u201d<\/p>\n

      Cornyn embarrassed himself\u2014such humiliations can be salved by either retreat or churlishness. The former party whip could still have enough hustle to bend a few equally disgruntled colleagues into something resembling at least soft resistance. That he was bumped off by a man with the morals of a ground snake might put the MAGA movement on Cornyn\u2019s fighting side. He\u2019s found some level of courage before. Yes, at a micro level, I believe it is more possible to peel off Cornyn than those who showed up to vote for him yesterday.<\/p>\n

      With all the reasons that Texas seems winnable<\/em>, it\u2019s tempting to forecast a Talarico victory, straight up. But that\u2019s not the most certain success on the table.<\/p>\n

      A $500 million race that drains the RNC, forces it to defend Bo French to the world, and produces a free-agent Cornyn is a different kind of Republican victory than the party wanted. Trump won the runoff. Whether he can survive his own win is an open question.<\/p>\n

      Read more Bowe Bergdahl and the Honorable History of War Deserters<\/a><\/p>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The Nation Magazine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly - Atlas Living Media<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=110\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly - Atlas Living Media\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Nation Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/atlaslivingmedia.com\/?p=110\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Atlas Living Media\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-28T15:09:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f6233854b1f92a6d21147fe5d5e58abc\"},\"headline\":\"Trump\u2019s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-28T15:09:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110\"},\"wordCount\":1519,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/9933a20ad45c856f188ab96c9c94e540.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/atlaslivingmedia.com\\\/?p=110\",\"name\":\"Trump\u2019s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly - 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